The US Federal Reserve needs to stop lagging behind inflationary developments

Morning Talks
For our top story abroad today, it is all about the US Fed two days’ meeting. Suggesting that the US Federal Reserve needs to stop lagging behind inflationary developments, is the polite way of describing what the world’s most powerful central bank must do when its policy committee meets this week. we need to mention that the Fed needs immediately to stop its asset-purchase program, guide markets towards expecting three and possibly more interest rises this year and bring forward to March the announcement of plans to reduce its balance sheet. It also needs to explain how it has managed to get its inflation call so wrong and why it is so late in reacting properly. Without that, it will struggle to regain the policy narrative and restore its credibility. Since the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last met on December 14-15, the US headline consumer price index breached 7%. The core measure of rising prices has gone above 5 per cent with broadening drivers. Unemployment has fallen below 4 per cent while labour force participation has remained unchanged, stuck below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the Fed’s estimate for its preferred measure of inflation — the core personal consumption expenditure index — for 2021 is 4.4 per cent, more than double what it projected a year ago, and the 2022 forecast has been raised to 2.7 per cent. Further upward revisions in 2022 are surely on the cards.
  1. On the other side, like most emerging market economies, the Egyptian economy is entering a year that may be more difficult than in recent years.
    Under inflationary pressure and the exchange rate and the expected decisions to raise interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Last week, Egypt raised its expectations for the current and future budget deficit, so what is happening in the Egyptian economy now? We believe that in light of the expected increase in US interest rates during 2022, the cost of external debt will rise. To fill the budget deficit, which is expected to rise, we will resort to increasing the debt, whether through direct loans or bond issuances. Thus, 2022 It will not be an easy year, but the challenges are more external than internal. However, it is expected that the value of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar would decline slightly under the weight of global monetary fluctuations and the current balance deficit in 2022. (Bloomberg)

  2. Egypt total deficit reached Egypt 3.9% in the first half of the current fiscal year 2021-2022, compared to 3.6% a year ago, and 4.1% two years ago, according to the Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait.
    Egypt is targeting economic growth of 5.7% in the draft budget for the fiscal year 2022-2023, and reducing the debt ratio to less than 90% of GDP in the next fiscal year. Maait added that his country expects to achieve a primary surplus between "1.1-1.2% in the current fiscal year, to rise to 1.5% in the next fiscal year 2022-2023. Egypt raised its forecast for the budget deficit in the current fiscal year 2021-2022 to 6.9% from a previous forecast of 6.7%, compared to 7.4% a year ago, and a primary surplus of 3.2 billion EGP was achieved in the first six months of the current fiscal year until the end of December. (Bloomberg Asharq)

  3. The Egyptian government injected around 33 billion EGP to establish road networks with a total length of about 1,350 kilometers (km) in new cities in a move to attract population, investment, and employment opportunities, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly revealed.
    Madbouly said that the state attaches great interest with road development and construction projects, especially those serving new cities, noting that establishing road networks falls in line with the country’s vision towards achieving sustainable development. (Arab Finance)

  4. The National Company for Railway Industries “Nerke” has reached its final stages of negotiations with Hyundai Rotem to sign a contract to manufacture, assemble and supply 40 subway trains for the National Authority for Tunnels in 2022.
    It is expected that the trains to be manufactured with “Hyundai Rotem” will run on the third and second subway lines, with the aim of reducing the drop-off period and providing an appropriate service for citizens. Nerk's investments are estimated at about 10 billion USD, and Samcrete Investments, Hassan Allam Holding, Orascom Construction, and Connect Technology and Information contribute to its capital. The company aims to establish an industrial complex on an area of ​​300,000 square meters in the economic zone of the Suez Canal at an estimated cost of about 240 million USD. (Al-Mal)

  5. Turing to our EGX and companies talks, Dsquares is looking to establish a special-purpose acquisition vehicle (SPAC).
    The company is currently working on fulfilling the Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) requirements for the listing of SPACs on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX). Dsquares would look for its blank-check firm to merge with another company operating in customer offers and discounts. The company is currently mulling whether it will be a public subscription or private offering. (Al Shorouk News)

  6. Jumia, the e-commerce leader in Egypt, announced the launch of the new Tech Center in Alexandria Governorate during the first quarter (Q1) of 2022.
    The Tech Center is the first regional center for technology and software development in the country. This is the second Tech center in Egypt after the company announced the opening of its first ever, tech center in Africa, based in Cairo. The center contributes in providing job opportunities for youth and giving them a great opportunity to be part of the digital innovation happening in Egypt and Africa. The center will serve 11 countries in Africa in which Jumia operates in: Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Uganda, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Ghana, Ivory Coast, South Africa and Senegal. (Arab Finance)

  7. British bank Standard Chartered has received preliminary approval from the Central Bank of Egypt to open its first branch in Egypt in the next six months.
    The bank has repeatedly tried in recent years to expand into the Egyptian market by acquiring local banks. The bank’s entry has not yet been confirmed by an official source. However, the bank’s entry underscores that Egypt is attractive to many foreign and regional banks. (Arab Finance)

  8. Fawry for Banking Technology and Electronic Payment (FWRY) has launched Fawry Yawmy money market fund, a fintech-based investment fund co-sponsored by both Fawry and Misr Capital, the investment banking arm of Banque Misr.
    The opening of purchase and redemption phase of Fawry Yawmy is scheduled on January 30th, with a minimum initial investment ticket of 500 EGP. The new investment fund depends on Fawry’s modern financial technology and its retail presence to reach the largest number of individual investors. Fawry Yawmy has been launched primarily to serve individual retail investors through over 160 of Fawry Plus branches across Egypt and over 250,000 Fawry points of sale (POS) machines. The services of the new market fund will be available later this year to all consumers via MyFawry app. (Al-Mal)

  9. Banque Misr, one of the biggest Egyptian banks operating in electronic payment systems and cards, has signed a cooperation protocol with Zoomcar Egypt, under which the bank will offer integrated e-payment solutions.
    The protocol was signed by Ihab Dorra, Head of Retail Banking Sector at Banque Misr, and Hany Olama, Vice President & Country Head Egypt. Under the new deal, the bank will allow electronic collection services through Zoomcar Egypt’s website and mobile application using the bank cards and BM wallet as well as other electronic wallets via QR Code. (Arab Finance)

  10. Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals Company (Sidpec) (SKPC) reported a 1,957.69% year-on-year (YoY) hike in net profit after tax for the year 2021.
    Net profit after tax reached 535 million EGP in 2021, compared to a profit of 26 million EGP in 2020. The company’s revenue rose by 48.08% YoY to 5.13 billion EGP in 2021 from 3.46 billion EGP. (EGX)

  11. GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals has decided to hold its Extraordinary General Assembly on February 17th to discuss the sale of consumer healthcare assets to GSK Consumer Healthcare Egypt.
    Three companies (Hekma Pharma - Rameda - Acdima Egypt) expressed their willingness to acquire GlaxoSmithKline during the first quarter of this year (January-March), but they did not receive a response due to the rejection of the main shareholder. (EGX)

  12. And finally, El Badr Plastic Company (EBDP) announced that its board of directors has approved the proposal of raising the company’s authorized and issued capitals.
    The board approved raising the authorized capital to 250 million EGP from 17 million EGP. Moreover, the board agreed upon increasing the company’s issued and paid-up capital to 114.75 million EGP from 11.475 million EGP by 103.275 million EGP through the issuance of 9-for-1 bonus share at a nominal value of 0.50 EGP per share. (EGX)

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