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MENA Outlook 2026: Anticipating New Realities
Global growth expectations have weakened sharply as tariff escalations and policy uncertainty reshape the macro landscape. The IMF now projects global growth at 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, down from earlier estimates of 3.3% for both years. The largest downgrades were unsurprisingly concentrated in the US and China, with US growth cut to 1.8% and China to 4% in 2025. Europe, the UK, and Japan also face softer trajectories, reflecting broad-based pressure across advanced markets. In the US, recession risks have risen meaningfully. A reinstatement of suspended “reciprocal” tariffs could tip the balance, amplifying stagflation risks and tightening financial conditions. China, meanwhile, confronts direct pressure from the tariff war, making policy support essential to defend its “around 5%” growth target. The evolution of US tariff policy remains the key swing factor in the global outlook; negotiations are expected to be difficult, with any positive development likely to prompt short-term market relief. To read more about the report download the pdf or Click Here
